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2015 Pacific typhoon season
The 2015 Pacific typhoon season is an ongoing event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation, in which tropical cyclones form in the western Pacific Ocean. The season will run throughout 2015, though most tropical cyclones typically develop between May and October. The scope of this article is limited to the Pacific Ocean to the north of the equator between 100°E and 180th meridian. Within the northwestern Pacific Ocean, there are two separate agencies that assign names to tropical cyclones which can often result in a cyclone having two names. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will name a tropical cyclone should it be judged to have 10-minute sustained wind speeds of at least 65 km/h (40 mph) anywhere in the basin, whilst the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) assigns names to tropical cyclones which move into or form as a tropical depression in their area of responsibility located between 135°E and 115°E and between 5°N–25°N regardless of whether or not a tropical cyclone has already been given a name by the JMA. Tropical depressions that are monitored by the United States' Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) are given a number with a "W" suffix.
== Seasonal forecasts ==
During the year several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many tropical cyclones, tropical storms, and typhoons will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies included the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) and the Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau. Some of the forecasts took into consideration what happened in previous seasons and the El Niño Conditions that were observed during the year. The first forecast of the year was released by PAGASA during January 2015, within its seasonal climate outlook for the period January – June.〔 The outlook noted that one to two tropical cyclones were expected between January and March while one to three were expected to develop or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility between April and June.〔
During March the Hong Kong Observatory predicted that the typhoon season in Hong Kong, would be near normal with four to seven tropical cyclones passing within of the territory compared to an average of six. Within its Pacific ENSO Update for the 2nd quarter of 2015, NOAA's Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation Applications Climate Center, noted that the risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in Micronesia was "greatly enhanced" by El Niño. As a result, they forecasted that the risk of a typhoon severely affecting Micronesia was high, with most islands predicted to have a "1 in 3 chance" of serious effects from some combination of high winds, large waves and extreme rainfall from a typhoon.〔 They also predicted that there was a near 100% chance of severe effects from a typhoon somewhere within Micronesia.〔 On May 6, Tropical Storm Risk issued their first forecast for the season and predicted that the season, would be the most active since 2004 with activity forecast to be above average.〔 Specifically it was forecast that 27 tropical storms, 17 typhoons, and 11 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 400 was also forecasted.〔
In late June the Thai Meteorological Department predicted that one or two tropical cyclones would move towards Thailand during 2015. The first of the two tropical storms was predicted to pass near Upper Thailand in either August or September, while the other one was expected to move to the south of Southern Thailand during November.〔 On June 30, Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau predicted that 28-32 tropical storms would develop over the basin, while two — four systems were expected to affect Taiwan itself.〔 During July, Paul Stanko of the United States National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Tiyan, Guam, called for tropical cyclone activity to be above average. He also predicted that several records would be set for the number of major typhoons in the western Pacific, tropical storms, typhoons and major typhoons in Micronesia.〔 PAGASA subsequently predicted within its July — December seasonal climate outlook, that seven to ten tropical cyclones were likely to develop and/or enter the Philippine area of responsibility between July and September, while three to five were predicted for the October–December period.〔 On July 16, the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) and the City University of Hong Kong's School of Energy, released their seasonal forecast for the period between June 1 — November 30. They predicted that 19.9 tropical cyclones would develop during the period with 10.3 of these going on and making landfall compared to averages of 23.0 and 17.4 tropical cyclones.〔 They further predicted that both the Korea — Japan region and that Taiwan and the Eastern Chinese provinces of Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian would see three of these landfalls each.〔 Vietnam, the Philippines and the Southern Chinese provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan were forecasted to see four landfalling tropical cyclones.〔 On August 5, Tropical Storm Risk issued their final forecast for the season and predicted that 2015 would be a hyperactive season.〔 Specifically it was forecast that 30 tropical storms, 20 typhoons, 13 intense typhoons would occur, while an ACE Index of 448 was also forecasted.〔
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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