|
The Bradley effect (less commonly the Wilder effect)〔Kevin Drum, ("East Coast Bias Watch" ), washingtonmonthly.com, July 23, 2008, citing a Google search: "3,820 hits for Wilder Effect compared to 44,900 hits for Bradley Effect"〕〔Payne, Gregory(1986). Tom Bradley: The Impossible Dream : A Biography Roundtable Pub. The chapter about Bradley Effect (Chapter 16 / pp. 243 – 288) is available online at http://www.gregorypayne.net/bradleybio.pdf〕 is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some United States government elections where a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.〔Reddy, Patrick. (2002, January 20). "(Does McCall Have A Chance? )", ''Buffalo News'', p. H1〕〔 The theory proposes that some voters who intend to vote for the white candidate would nonetheless tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for the non-white candidate. It was named after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls going into the elections.〔(Fighting the Last War – TIME )〕 The Bradley effect posits that the inaccurate polls were skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.〔Perez, Simon. (2008, October 9). "(Could Bradley Effect Change November Election? )" KPIX-TV, "Political Consultant Don Solem explains: 'It's not so much they're afraid to say it as they think it might be taken the wrong way.' Solem said the Bradley Effect is also known as social desirability bias."〕〔Rojas, Aurelio. (2008, October 9). "(California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' )" ''Sacramento Bee'', "'Anyone who studies survey research will tell you one of the biggest problems we encounter is this notion of social desirability bias,' (Egan, a professor of politics at New York University ) said."〕 Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. Members of the public may feel under pressure to provide an answer that is deemed to be more publicly acceptable, or 'politically correct'. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into voters' answers. Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect, or argued that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more recent ones, such as when Barack Obama was elected and reelected President of the United States in 2008 and 2012 respectively. Others believe that it is a persistent phenomenon.〔(A Base Election After All? ) Weekly Standard; Aaron Miskin; November 11, 2008〕 Similar effects have been posited in other contexts, for example, the Shy Tory Factor and spiral of silence. ==Origin== In 1982, Tom Bradley, the long-time mayor of Los Angeles, California, ran as the Democratic Party's candidate for Governor of California against Republican candidate George Deukmejian, who is white (of Armenian descent). Most polls in the final days before the election showed Bradley with a significant lead.〔Nelson, Colleen McCain. (2002, August 10). "( Race makes state races hard to call )", ''Dallas Morning News''〕 Based on exit polls, a number of media outlets projected Bradley as the winner and early editions of the next day's ''San Francisco Chronicle'' featured a headline proclaiming "Bradley Win Projected." However, despite winning a majority of the votes cast on election day, Bradley narrowly lost the overall race once absentee ballots were included.〔 Post-election research indicated that a smaller percentage of white voters actually voted for Bradley than polls had predicted, and that previously undecided voters had voted for Deukmejian in statistically anomalous numbers.〔〔Rojas, Aurelio. (2008, October 9). "(California poll on Prop. 8 could show 'Bradley effect' )" ''Sacramento Bee'', "DiCamillo said a postelection analysis conducted by his organization found 'nine out of 10' undecided respondents wound up voting for Deukmejian."〕 A month prior to the election, Bill Roberts, Deukmejian's campaign manager, predicted that white voters would break for his candidate. He told reporters that he expected Deukmejian to receive approximately 5 percent more votes than polling numbers indicated because white voters were giving inaccurate polling responses to conceal the appearance of racial prejudice. Deukmejian disavowed Roberts's comments, and Roberts resigned his post as campaign manager.〔(1982, October 13). "(AIDE TO COAST G.O.P. CANDIDATE RESIGNS AFTER REMARKS ON RACISM )", ''The New York Times''〕 Some news sources and columnists〔Chadwick, Alex. (2008, October 6). "(Should Obama Fear The "Bradley Effect"? )", National Public Radio〕〔Geraghty, Jim. (2008, October 9). "(Who's Most Worried About a Bradley Effect? )", ''National Review Online''〕〔Morrison, Patt. (2008, October 2). "(The 'Bradley effect' in 2008 )", ''Los Angeles Times''〕 have attributed the theory's origin to Charles Henry, a professor of African-American Studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Henry researched the election in its aftermath and, in a 1983 study, reached the controversial conclusion that race was the most likely factor in Bradley's defeat. However, one critic of the Bradley effect theory has charged that Mervin Field of The Field Poll had already offered the theory as explanation for his poll's errors, suggesting it (without providing supporting data for the claim) on the day after the election.〔 Ken Khachigian, a senior strategist and day-to-day tactician in Deukmejian's 1982 campaign, has noted that Field's final pre-election poll was badly timed, since it was taken over the weekend, and most late polls failed to register a surge in support for Deukmejian in the campaign's final two weeks.〔Ken Khachigian. (2008, November 2). "(If Obama Loses: Don't Blame the Bradley Effect" ),"''The Washington Post''〕 In addition, the exit polling failed to consider absentee balloting in an election which saw an "unprecedented wave of absentee voters" organized on Deukmejian's behalf. In short, Khachigian argues, the "Bradley effect" was simply an attempt to come up with an excuse for what was really the result of flawed opinion polling practices.〔Kachigian, ''op. cit.''〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「Bradley effect」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
|