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FiveThirtyEight is a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Sometimes referred to as 538, the website takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college. Established on March 7, 2008, as ''FiveThirtyEight.com'', in August 2010 the blog became a licensed feature of ''The New York Times'' online. It was renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus. In July 2013, ESPN announced that it would become the owner of the FiveThirtyEight brand and site, and Silver was appointed as editor-in-chief.〔"Nate Silver makes move to ESPN," ESPN.com, (July 22, 2013 ).〕 The ESPN-owned FiveThirtyEight began publication on March 17, 2014. During the U.S. presidential primaries and general election of 2008, the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in baseball sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data."〔Andrew Romano,"Making His Pitches: Nate Silver, an all-star in the world of baseball stats, may be the political arena's next big draw," ( ''Newsweek'', June 16, 2008. )〕 He weighted "each poll based on the pollster's historical track record, sample size, and recentness of the poll". Since the 2008 election, the site has published articles typically creating or analyzing statistical information – on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the U.S. Senate; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reform, global warming legislation, LGBT rights; elections around the world; marijuana legalization; and numerous other topics. The site and its creator are best known for election forecasts, including the 2012 presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. During its first five and a half years, FiveThirtyEight won numerous awards both when it was an independent blog and when it was published by ''The New York Times.'' These included "Bloggie" Awards for "Best Political Coverage" in 2008 and "Best Weblog about Politics" in 2009, as well as "Webbies" for "Best Political Blog" in 2012 and 2013. ==Genesis and history== When Silver started ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' in early March 2008, he published under the name "Poblano", the same name that he had used since November 2007 when he began publishing a diary on the political blog ''Daily Kos''.〔(【引用サイトリンク】title=Poblano's Profile )〕 Writing as Poblano on ''Daily Kos,'' he had gained a following, especially for his primary election forecast on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008〔"Super Tuesday Preview, 1/31/08," (''DailyKos.com'' )〕〔"Final Super Tuesday Projection, 2/5/08," (''DailyKos.com'' ).〕 From that primary election day, which included contests in 24 states plus American Samoa, "Poblano" predicted that Barack Obama would come away with 859 delegates, and Hillary Clinton 829; in the final contests, Obama won 847 delegates and Clinton 834. Based on this result, ''New York Times'' op-ed columnist William Kristol wrote: "And an interesting regression analysis at the Daily Kos Web site (poblano.dailykos.com) of the determinants of the Democratic vote so far, applied to the demographics of the Ohio electorate, suggests that Obama has a better chance than is generally realized in Ohio".〔William Kristol, "Obama's Path to Victory", (''The New York Times'', February 11, 2008 ). Also see Mark Blumenthal, "Regression Analysis of the Democratic Race," (Pollster.com ), February 12, 2008.〕 ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic party primaries on May 6, 2008. As Mark Blumenthal wrote in ''National Journal'', "Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, ''FiveThirtyEight.com.'' He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data.... Critics scoffed. Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina.... But a funny thing happened. The model got it right". Silver relied on demographic data and on the history of voting in ''other'' states during the 2008 Democratic primary elections. "I think it is interesting and, in a lot of ways, I'm not surprised that his predictions came closer to the result than the pollsters did", said Brian F. Schaffner, research director of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. On May 30, 2008, Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' readers.〔Nate Silver, "No, I'm Not Chuck Todd", (''FiveThirtyEight.com,'' May 30, 2008 ).〕 After that date, he published just four more diaries on ''Daily Kos''.〔 As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results. In 2008, ''Rasmussen Reports'' had an apparently short-term partnership with ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator".〔"Rasmussen Reports to Partner with FiveThirtyEight.com," ''Democratic Underground,'' (June 14, 2008 ). (November 27, 2012 )〕 At the same time, ''FiveThirtyEight.coms daily "Today's Polls" column began to be mirrored on "The Plank," a blog published by ''The New Republic''.〔The first such cross-posting was Nate Silver, ("Today's Polls: The Bounce Hits the Badger State," ''The New Republic'', June 12, 2008 ).〕 By early October 2008, ''FiveThirtyEight.com'' approached 2.5 million visitors per week, while averaging approximately 400,000 per weekday. During October 2008 the site received 3.63 million unique visitors, 20.57 million site visits, and 32.18 million page views. On Election Day, November 4, 2008, the site had nearly 5 million page views. On June 3, 2010, Silver announced that in early August the blog would be "relaunched under a ''NYTimes.com'' domain".〔"The New York Times Will Incorporate the Blog FiveThirtyEight into the Politics Section of NYTimes.com," (''MarketWatch,'' June 3, 2010 ).〕〔Brian Stelter, "Times to Host Blog on Politics and Polls," (''The New York Times,'' June 3, 2010 ).〕 The transition took place on August 25, 2010, with the publication of Silver's first ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog article online in ''The New York Times''. In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his ''FiveThirtyEight'' blog would depart ''The New York Times'' and join ESPN.〔Brian Stelter, "Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Blog Is to Join ESPN Staff," ''The New York Times'', (July 19, 2013 ).〕 In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com".〔Amy Phillips, "Nate Silver – Renowned Statistician, Author and Founder of FiveThirtyEight – Joins ESPN in Multi-Faceted Role," (ESPN Front Row, July 22, 2013 ).〕 According to Silver, the focus of ''FiveThirtyEight'' in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it’s going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it’s going to be a politics site with sports thrown in.... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously.... It’s a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It’s certainly good with presidential elections. But we don’t really see politics as how the site is going to grow".〔Joe Coscarelli, "Nate Silver on the Launch of ESPN’s New FiveThirtyEight, Burritos, and Being a Fox," ''New York,'' (March 13, 2014 ).〕 FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. The lead story by Nate Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization.... We’ve expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we’ll have interactive graphics and features".〔Nate Silver, "What the Fox Knows," FiveThirtyEight, (March 17, 2014 ).〕 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「FiveThirtyEight」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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