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Prediction markets company NewsFutures (2000-2010) has evolved into (Lumenogic ), "a consulting firm that specializes in developing and customizing online systems for large organizations to use to gather so-called Collective Intelligence from their employees."〔(Stier, K. (2011) Lumenogic Mines Workers’ Opinions for U.S. Air Force, Multinationals. ''Bloomberg'', August 30, 2011 )〕 Founded in May 2000 by Émile Servan-Schreiber and Maurice Balick, NewsFutures, Inc. was one of the earliest providers of prediction markets to both the general public〔(Robinson, S. (2001) Play Money? Not to These News Investors. ''The New York Times'', July 5, 2001 )〕〔(Surowiecki, J. (2003) Decisions, Decisions. ''The New Yorker'', March 17, 2003 )〕 and private companies.〔(Kambil, A. (2003) You Can Bet on Idea Markets. ''Trends and Ideas'', 1, 1, Fall 2003 )〕 It played a leading role in applying collective intelligence and prediction markets to business forecasting, innovation and decision making.〔(Pethokoukis, J. (2004) All Seeing, All Knowing, ''U.S. News & World Report'', August 22, 2004 )〕〔(Giles, J. (2005) Wisdom of the crowd. ''Nature'', 438, 281, November 17, 2005 )〕〔(King, R. (2006) Workers, Place Your Bets. ''Businessweek'', August 3, 2006 )〕〔(Lohr, S. (2008) Betting to Improve the Odds, ''The New York Times'', April 9, 2008 )〕〔(Fitzgeorge-Parker, L. (2009) The Next Big Thinker. ''CNBC Business'', December, 2009 )〕 It was one of several companies that help large corporations set up private prediction markets to capture the collective foresight of their employees or client base, as described in James Surowiecki's book ''The Wisdom of Crowds''. NewsFutures is one of the few prediction market companies cited in the book.〔Surowiecki, J. (2005) ''The Wisdom of Crowds.'' Anchor Books, pp. 20, 279-280〕 From September 2000 to October 2009, NewsFutures operated one of the best known prediction market games on the Web, listing contracts on over 120,000 events on a wide variety of topics in current events, politics, finance and sports.〔(Barrett, J. (2003) Place Your Bets. ''Newsweek'', August 7, 2003 )〕〔(Paranada, D. (2007) Betting on Tomorrow's news. ''Online Journalism Review'', March 7, 2007 )〕 The accuracy of its predictions was recognized by James "wisdom of crowds" Surowiecki himself, when he wrote in the New Yorker in 2003: «''In a sense, the NewsFutures traders are only trying to do what op-ed writers, TV pundits, and Presidential advisers attempt to do every day: predict the future. The big difference is that the markets are far more likely to be right.''».〔 In his book, Surowiecki called it one of "the two most important online trading sites," the other being Intrade.〔 NewsFutures founder Émile Servan-Schreiber, a son of famed journalist and politician Jean-Jacques Servan-Schreiber, has been a leading proponent the idea that prediction markets should be viewed as "quasi journalistic" ventures, i.e., that their predictions are newsworthy content.〔〔〔(Hart, A. (2008) Hedging Your Bets on Current Events. ''ABC News'', April 2, 2008 )〕 The NewsFutures market had a distinctive international flavor because it also operated markets in French and in Hungarian, enabling U.S.-based players to trade with European counterparts, each in their own language. From November 2001 to January 2004, USA Today co-branded the NewsFutures Sports and Money prediction markets.〔(USATODAY.com Readers can Make Big Predictions With NewsFutures. ''PR Newswire'', December 6, 2001 )〕 During the 2003-2004 National Football League season, the play-money predictions of NewsFutures were systematically compared to the real-money predictions of TradeSports (now Intrade) and found to be just as accurate.〔(Servan-Schreiber, E., Wolfers, J., Pennock, D., & Galebach, B. (2004) Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter? ''Electronic Markets'', 14, 3 )〕 This result contradicted the conventional wisdom that "''putting your money where your mouth is''" should enhance prediction market accuracy', and it has served to enhance the credibility of play-money markets and boost their adoption in enterprise contexts where real-money betting is illegal. NewsFutures also launched in 2007 the first charity-driven prediction market, Bet2Give,〔(Bet2Give featured on Maria Bartiromo's CNBC show "Closing Bell", December 21, 2007 )〕 where real money was being wagered but all profits had to be given to charities of the winner's choice. == References == 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「NewsFutures」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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