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PECOTA
PECOTA, an acronym for ''Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm'', is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002-2003 and introduced to the public in the book ''Baseball Prospectus 2003''.〔Nate Silver, "Introducing PECOTA," in Gary Huckabay, Chris Kahrl, Dave Pease ''et al.'', Eds., ''Baseball Prospectus 2003'' (Dulles, VA: Brassey's Publishers, 2003): 507–514.〕 Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. He was responsible for the PECOTA projections for the 2003–2009 baseball seasons. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts. The first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing the PECOTA projections was 2010.〔Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009," (BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009 ).〕
One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are marketed by BP as a fantasy baseball product. Since 2003, annual PECOTA forecasts have been published both in the ''Baseball Prospectus'' annual books and, in more detailed form, on the BaseballProspectus.com subscription-based website.〔Illustrative PECOTA estimates and "cards" are available for inspection by nonsubscribers here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/.〕 PECOTA also inspired some analogous projection systems for other professional sports: KUBIAK for the National Football League, SCHOENE〔Kevin Pelton, "Introducing SCHOENE: Our NBA Projection System," (BasketballProspectus.com (October 20, 2008) )〕 for the National Basketball Association, and VUKOTA〔Thomas Awad, "Introducing VUKOTA," (PuckProspectus.com (July 20, 2009) ).〕 for the National Hockey League.
PECOTA forecasts a player's performance in all of the major categories used in typical fantasy baseball games; it also forecasts production in advanced sabermetric categories developed by Baseball Prospectus (e.g., VORP and EqA). In addition, PECOTA forecasts several summary diagnostics such as breakout rates, improve rates, and attrition rates, as well as the market values of the players. The logic and methodology underlying PECOTA have been described in several publications, but the detailed formulas are proprietary and have not been shared with the baseball research community.
==Methodology==
Silver described the inspiration for his approach as follows:
The basic idea behind PECOTA is really a fusion of two different things – () James's work on similarity scores and Gary Huckabay's work on Vlad, (Prospectus's ) previous projection system, which tried to assign players to a number of different career paths.〔Gary Huckabay, "6-4-3: Reasonable Person Standard," (BaseballProspectus.com, August 2, 2002 ).〕 I think Gary used something like thirteen or fifteen separate career paths, and all that PECOTA is really doing is carrying that to the logical extreme, where there is essentially a separate career path for every player in major league history. The comparability scores are the mechanism by which it picks and chooses from among those career paths.〔Rich Lederer, "An Unfiltered Interview with Nate Silver," (''Baseball Analysts'', February 12, 2007. )〕
抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』
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