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Guesstimate is an informal English portmanteau of ''guess'' and ''estimate'', first used by American statisticians in 1934〔(''guess'' ) Online Etymological Dictionary〕 or 1935.〔(''guesstimate'' ) Dictionary.com Unabridged (v 1.1)〕 It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information,〔(''guesstimate'' ) Merriam-Webster On-line Dictionary〕〔(''guesstimate'' ) MSN Encarta Dictionary. (Archived ) 2009-10-31.〕 or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.〔〔(''guesstimate'' ) American Heritage Dictionary〕〔Compact Oxford English Dictionary (guesstimate )〕 Like the words estimate and guess, guesstimate may be used as a verb or a noun (with the same change in pronunciation as estimate). A guesstimate may be a first rough approximation pending a more accurate estimate, or it may be an educated guess at something for which no better information will become available. The word may be used in a pejorative sense if information for a better estimate is available but ignored.〔"Guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals" from back cover of Statistics for Dummies〕〔(Guesstimate; Grades 4-6 ) NTTI Lesson Plan〕 Guesstimation techniques are used: *in physics, where the use of guesstimation techniques to solve Fermi problems is taught as a useful skill to science students.〔(Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin ), Tony Mann, Times Higher Education Supplement〕 *in cosmology, where the Drake equation is a well-known guesstimation method.〔(The Drake Equation ) WeAreNotAlone.net〕 *in economics, where economic forecasts and statistics are often based on guesstimates.〔(Economic outlooks often rely on guesstimation ), M. Ray Perryman, San Antonio Business Journal〕 *in software engineering, where new development of features and release timelines are based on effort guesstimates of tasks. Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam's book ''Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin'', based on the course "Physics on the Back of an Envelope" at Old Dominion University, promotes guesstimation techniques as a useful life skill. It includes many worked examples of guesstimation, including the following problems: *How many total miles do Americans drive in a year? ::Answer: about two trillion (2x1012).〔Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 5.1〕 *How much high-level nuclear waste does a 1 GW nuclear power plant produce in a year? ::Answer: about sixty tons.〔Weinstein & Adam (2008) Problem 10.5〕 ==See also== *Ansatz *Ballpark estimate *Back-of-the-envelope calculation *Scientific Wild-Ass Guess. 抄文引用元・出典: フリー百科事典『 ウィキペディア（Wikipedia）』 ■ウィキペディアで「guesstimate」の詳細全文を読む スポンサード リンク
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